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Based on extensive conversations with elected officials, pollsters, strategists, and former Trump official, here are some variables that might affect down-ballot races.
Tomorrow's election includes several high-stakes races that could determine control of the U.S. House and Senate. During these past few weeks, I’ve had the opportunity to speak to numerous experts about the outcomes of these races in addition to the presidential race.
For a more sharper look at the down ballot races, I reached out to Amy Walter, the queer publisher and editor-in-chief of the venerable The Cook Political Report that provides independent, non-partisan analysis of elections and campaigns for the U.S. House of Representatives, U.S. Senate, Governors and President as well as American political trends.
The Cook Report was founded in 1984 by legendary political operative Charlie Cook. The most pressing question I had for Walter was how this year differs from 2022, when Democrats did better than expected in down-ballot races.
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“First, it’s best to compare 2024 to this point in a presidential election like 2020 and 2016,” Walter cautioned. “A midterm year like 2022 has a very different electorate and turnout than a presidential year.”
Walter said that what’s different from this time in 2016 and 2020 is that Trump is polling stronger. “What we still don’t know, however, is if he will be able to get beyond the ceiling of support he’s had in those two elections. If he does break that ceiling, it will likely be due to his ability to attract younger and voters of color to his coalition. “
The reason I’d asked about 2022 was because abortion was a key driver in the Democrats' success. “If Democrats are able to defy the odds and expectations, it will show that abortion rights remained an extremely salient issue,” Walter and her team added.
Here are seven factors to watch in Senate and House races tomorrow:
Democrats are fighting for their lives in Pennsylvania (Casey), MIchigan (Stabenow), Ohio (Brown), Montana (Tester) and Wisconsin (Baldwin). The outcomes and possible upsets/wins in Texas, Arizona and Nebraska could tip the balance of power.
The Cook Political Report ranges from Republican gain of 2 to 5 seats, which would give them a majority of between 51 and 54 seats.
Republicans currently have a slight edge in winning back control of the House, with forecasters showing many competitive races across several states like New York, Pennsylvania, and California, to name just a few. The outcome may hinge on a handful of key districts where incumbent Democrats are facing serious challenges, particularly in swing states.
The Cook Political Report ranges from a Republican gain of 5 seats to a Democratic gain of 10 seats - a range of a GOP majority of 226-209 to a Democratic majority of 224-211.
In my conversation with Speaker Emerita Nancy Pelosi, she was hopeful that the House would go back to Democratic control.
The economy, healthcare, and immigration have topped the list of voters' concerns. How these topics influence voter turnout and sway undecided voters could shift close races in critical battleground districts.
And according to Celinda Lake, top pollster of the DNC, abortion will continue to be a key issue that drives women to the polls, which could make a huge impact. And a real wild card is how will men vote on abortion? For the first time this year, at least in my memory, there was a concerted effort to include men in the conversation, and how their wives, moms, sisters, and partners might be affected by strict abortion bans.
Finally, Mark Cuban told me that Trump’s economic policy, i.e. raising tariffs, is a “Grinch move” designed to hurt the middle class.
Key demographic groups, such as suburban women and young voters, could make a significant impact, particularly in swing districts. High turnout among these groups may signal a shift in party control.
And while Harris dominates with Black voters, Hispanic voters, who wavered, seem to be leaning heavily Harris’s way after derogatory comments that emanated from Trump’s Madison Square Garden rally.
Both Lincoln Project founder Rick Wilson and Republican Voters Against Trump founder Sarah Longwell both told me that if 11 percent of Republicans vote for Harris, she’ll win the election. Both Longwell and Wilson, as well as Lake, feel confident that they’ll meet that threshold.
Whether or not these Republicans also migrate to Democrats remains to be seen.
Believe it or not, there are still undecided out there who will make up their minds tomorrow. This small sliver of the electorate could tip the scales in some of the too-close-to-call House and Senate races.
Regardless, this election is expected to bring a mix of close races, potential upsets, and the results will inevitably shape who controls the 119th Congress, who shape the legislative agenda heading into 2025.
How much of an effect on down-ballot races will Trump’s last week of campaigning have on close House and Senate races? From trashing Puerto Ricans, threatening Liz Cheney, Michelle Obama, the media, will voters turned off by Trump tune out Republican House and Senate candidates?
Further, did Trump’s former chief-of-staff, General John Kelly’s warning that Trump was a fascist scare enough voters to either sit this election out, or vote straight Democratic in order to rid Washington of Trump and his autocratic posse?
As former Trump communications director Anthony Scaramucci told me, “We are all trying to tell you how dangerous and stupid this guy is, and I don’t know for the life of me why some people aren’t heeding our advice.”
