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The poll is the latest evidence that anti-trans attack ads may not help Republicans in 2024.
According to a Fox News poll released Wednesday, Kamala Harris holds a 2-point lead over Donald Trump. However, the most intriguing takeaway isn't the topline result, but rather the details on a growing Republican line of attack in 2024: transgender issues. When asked who voters trust most to handle a variety of topics, Harris leads on most, such as abortion, health care, and election integrity. However, her lead is among the strongest on one particular issue: transgender rights.
When voters were asked whom they trust to handle transgender issues, Harris leads Trump by 16 points. This margin mirrors her lead on abortion and is just slightly behind her advantage on climate change, where she performs best. Harris’s lead on transgender issues suggests that highlighting this topic in the election may backfire for Trump, potentially weakening his chances the more Republicans push the issue to the forefront.
The situation for Trump does not improve when examining the crosstabs. Harris holds a commanding lead over Trump on transgender issues across several demographic groups, including some that might come as a surprise. For example, she is ahead by 10 points among men. Her advantage widens further among likely voters, where she leads by 17 points. Among voters aged 65 and older, her lead extends to 21 points. Even among Independents and swing state voters, Harris is ahead by 19 points and 10 points, respectively.
This focus on swing state voters is particularly significant, given the heightened attention on transgender issues in this election cycle. On September 1st, the prominent conservative super PAC, Senate Leadership Fund, launched the first wave of an $80 million ad buy targeting swing-state senators up for re-election in Ohio and Pennsylvania. A substantial portion of these ads center around anti-trans rhetoric, accusing Democratic Senate candidates of supporting policies that would “allow puberty blockers and sex change surgeries for minor children” and “permit transgender biological men to compete in women’s sports.”
Trump himself has repeatedly featured anti-trans attacks against Harris during this election cycle. On multiple occasions, he has made the baseless claim that teachers are performing sex change surgeries on children, sending them home as “another gender.” He has also targeted Minnesota Governor Tim Walz for policies that establish Minnesota as a sanctuary state for transgender individuals fleeing anti-trans legislation in other states. Trump has promised to enact sweeping anti-trans measures on day one if elected, including a total ban on gender-affirming care for transgender youth, the establishment of national bathroom bans for trans students, and the elimination of federal funding for all transgender care. Such policies could have devastating consequences, particularly for transgender adults who rely on health insurance marketplace subsidies to afford their care.
There is no evidence that Republican targeting of transgender people has been effective in past elections. In fact, there is ample evidence suggesting that it has hindered the GOP in key races. For example, in Michigan’s 2022 elections, Democrats secured a governing trifecta, with a GOP state chair admitting that Republicans spent more money on anti-trans ads than on core economic issues, which contributed to their loss. Similar dynamics were evident in the Wisconsin Supreme Court election and legislative races in Pennsylvania. Most prominently, Moms For Liberty and Project 1776 lost 70% of their school board races in 2023, most running on anti-transgender school policies. Polls from Gallup, Navigator, and the LA Times consistently show that the general public opposes anti-transgender legislation, supports decisions about transgender youth being left to parents, families, and doctors, and views anti-trans rhetoric as “a distraction.”
Nevertheless, anti-trans attack ads are likely to continue targeting key Democrats in swing states. With budget battles looming, including a national military bill that seeks to strip rights from transgender servicemembers and their families—backed by figures like Joe Manchin—Republicans may still believe they can siphon off moderate Democratic support. It's a risky move. If the GOP loses on this issue for a third consecutive election cycle, they may be forced to distance themselves from anti-LGBTQ+ platforms once again, as they attempted to do after Obergefell.
One thing is clear: these attacks are highly unlikely to shift the race in Trump’s favor. In fact, the more they are used, the more they may actually bolster Harris.
This article originally appeared on Erin in the Morning.
