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They hope that people are more afraid of transgender folks than a future under GOP control.
As the 2024 election approaches, Republicans are making a bold gamble: they are banking on economic fears, perceived danger of immigrants, and transphobia to drive voters to the polls. By generating fear over transgender rights—mainly focusing on transgender athletes and gender-affirming health care—the GOP, critics say, is stoking the culture wars and distracting from issues like the economy, healthcare, and immigration.
According to the New York Times, Republicans have spent more than $60 million on anti-trans ads, which flood battleground states with misleading portrayals designed to make voters afraid. The ads feature images of transgender athletes and claims that Democrats, particularly Vice President Kamala Harris, support taxpayer-funded access to gender-affirming health care for incarcerated people. Former President Donald Trump’s campaign has leaned heavily on these issues, ending one of its most-aired ads with the line, “Kamala is for they/them. President Trump is for you.”
Related: Donald Trump’s latest anti-transgender attack on Kamala Harris ‘reeks of desperation,’ advocates say
The New York Times reports that Republicans are hoping that transphobia will unite their base and sway swing voters, particularly suburban women. The ads are crafted to stir fear about the so-called dangers of transgender women in sports, framing the issue as one of fairness and safety for young girls. In reality, transgender participation in sports is rare, and research continues to show that transgender inclusion does not pose any threat to others.
According to a study published in JAMA Network Open in 2023, the number of transgender youth participating in competitive sports is quite low. In a survey of 905 youth aged 14 to 24, only 3 percent of respondents identified as transgender, and a majority had little to no personal experience with transgender inclusion in sports. The data further showed that despite the political furor, the actual number of trans athletes competing, especially in youth sports, is marginal. Of those surveyed, nearly half supported transgender athletes playing sports based on their gender identity, while 35 percent favored participation based on sex assigned at birth or suggested separate leagues.
Related: Drag queen featured in anti-trans attack ad against Kamala Harris considers suing Trump campaign
But facts are secondary to the GOP’s aim of capitalizing on discomfort with social change. Republicans are doubling down on this messaging in the hopes that it will have a broader appeal than it did in the 2022 midterms when similar attempts to weaponize transgender rights failed to bring the electoral victories they hoped for. This time, the stakes are higher, and the rhetoric even more divisive.
The question is, will voters care?
Polling suggests that Republicans may be out of touch with what voters want. A January 2024 GLAAD poll revealed that 81 percent of voters, including 83 percent of swing voters and 73 percent of Trump supporters, believe parents, not politicians, should make healthcare decisions for transgender youth. The 19th found that only 17 percent of voters think restricting gender-affirming care should be a legislative priority.
