Recently, many of us were surprised to see an Iowa poll by The Des Moines Register/Mediacom that showed former President Donald Trump’s lead over Vice President Kamala Harris in the presidential race suddenly shrinking in the state. Among likely voters, he now leads by 47 percent to 43 percent, and the difference is just a hair short of the margin of error.
“The thing about Iowa is that it's filled with white voters, and that Iowa poll is a gold standard because there's no pollster in that state that people trust more, and the kind of movement that you saw in that Iowa poll, I see it as is a stand-in for movement among white voters in general,” Sarah Longwell, founder of the Republican Accountability Project, said during a recent call when I asked her if the Iowa poll was a harbinger.
“Now, Iowa is different from Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan,” she added. “But it's more like them than it is in states like Georgia and North Carolina, which is much more about turning out African American voters and sort of mobilizing black voters.”
Longwell’s organization is a leader in conducting aggressive and frequent focus groups with Republican voters as well as producing videos and advertisements that help give Republican voters a permission structure to vote for Harris this election cycle.
One of Harris’s key strategies has been reaching out to these conservative and moderate voters, Longwell said. “She’s been actively talking about center-right voters,” Longwell noted. “During the debate, Harris referenced the 200 former Bush administration officials who endorsed her.”
Longwell also pointed out that at the Democratic National Convention, former Republican Congressman Adam Kinzinger was given a prime-time slot, signaling that Harris is serious about broadening her coalition. “These moves have resonated with Republican voters, with many seeing Harris as a more moderate and centrist option than her predecessors.”
It’s hard to overstate the importance of Longwell’s work and that of other organizations like the Lincoln Project in educating Republican voters. Coupling their efforts with Harris’s ability to connect with swing voters in battleground states could be a game-changer.
I asked Longwell to estimate how many swing voters Harris might need in certain states to eke out victory in what’s expected to be razor-thin margins. “We’re talking about 80,000 votes in Pennsylvania, 11,000 in places like Georgia and Arizona. If she’s able to pick up just 4 to 6 percent of center-right voters, that could be decisive.”
One of Harris’s strengths is her ability to forge a coalition that spans across demographics. “She has made strides with women, non-college-educated voters, and minority communities, while also gaining traction with suburban, college-educated voters,” Longwell said. “She’s putting together a coalition of women and non-college women, and she’s fighting her way back with Black and Hispanic voters.”
While all this sounds promising, Longwell and I agreed that Harris faces a tough opponent in Trump if he succeeds in his strategy to mobilize his rural base. “Trump’s entire game plan is about trying to run up margins with low-propensity voters, especially in rural areas,” Longwell remarked. “He maxed out those voters in 2020, so the question is whether there are more of them to turn out in 2024.”
Longwell added that while Trump still commands base-level enthusiasm, Harris’s ability to generate excitement among a broader coalition of voters may offset his rural stronghold.
And it’s no secret that one of Trump’s other strengths is with male voters. Longwell noted the significant gender gap in current polling and emphasized the importance of Harris doing better with men, especially in rural areas. “They’ve got to find a way to lose less badly in rural places,” she advised. “Democrats need to engage more directly with these communities, which have traditionally leaned heavily Republican.”
During our conversation, I brought up Republican vice-presidential nominee JD Vance, and Longwell pounced. “Vance is an interesting thing to bring up just because swing voters hate him. I haven't seen as much disdain for a candidate since Mike Pence refused to certify the 2020 election, I mean, the swing voters just don't like Vance.”
Although Vance has a litany of absurd comments and ideas, Longwell said that the “childless cat ladies” remark really broke through. “Voters know all about those comments. As a result, voters we talk to on a regular basis use words like ‘creepy’ and ‘weird’ when describing Vance.”
Longwell said that Vance’s unpopularity may serve as a reminder of Trump’s own misogynistic tendencies. “What Vance does is reignite concerns that some voters had pushed to the back of their minds after the Access Hollywood tape and ‘locker room’ talk.”
Former Vice President Dick Cheney became top of my mind when he announced he wasn’t going to vote for Trump and added, rather shockingly, that he’d vote for Harris. I asked Longwell how consequential Cheney’s endorsement was, particularly with fellow Republicans. “Cheney’s public rejection of Trump has resonated with older, traditional Republican voters who are uncomfortable with the direction their party has taken. If you’re a 65-year-old Republican voter, you came to the party for Ronald Reagan. If you’re 25, you came to the party for Donald Trump, Cheney creates a permission structure for those older voters who are lifelong Republicans but don’t want to vote for Trump again.”
While figures like Cheney have been influential, Longwell believes that the real impact could come from former military leaders who served in Trump’s administration. “Generals like John Kelly, James Mattis, and Mark Milley — people who saw Trump up close — could be very meaningful if they spoke out,” she suggested. “These voices could sway low-information voters who are just starting to pay attention to the election.”
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Ultimately, Longwell believes the 2024 election will come down to a few key battleground states, particularly Pennsylvania. “It’s all about Pennsylvania,” she emphasized. “Actually, she and her team should just move to Pennsylvania.” Longwell and I are both in favor of that. Longwell grew up near Harrisburg, and I grew up in Pittsburgh.
And speaking of Pittsburgh, it should be no coincidence that not only did Harris prepare for her debate in Pittsburgh, but tonight she will do her first network interview in the Steel City with MSNBC's Stephanie Ruhle.
As the election approaches, Harris continues to build momentum, energizing the Democratic base and reaching out to swing voters and independents. While Trump remains an opponent who will play dirty, and play mean, Longwell thinks Harris’s ability to light up the board on enthusiasm could be the key to victory in 2024. “I’m optimistic about Harris’s prospects, and her strategy of building a broad coalition. It may be the decisive factor in one of the most closely watched elections in recent history.”
