By continuing to use our site, you agree to our Private Policy and Terms of Use.
If Harris wins Iowa, will the blue spread to neighboring states like Nebraska and Missouri?
In September, the vaunted Des Moines Register/Selzer poll in Iowa showed Trump leading Harris by only three points. That was a big deal. It felt like it was a bellwether.
LIVE: Election Day 2024 coverage of LGBTQ+ issues
“The thing about Iowa is that it's filled with white voters and that Iowa poll is a gold standard because there's no pollster in that state that people trust more, and the kind of movement that you saw in that Iowa poll, I see it as is a stand-in for movement among white voters in general,” Sarah Longwell, executive director of Republican Voters Against Trump said at the time.
“Now, Iowa is different from Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan,” she added. “But it's more like them than it is in states like Georgia and North Carolina, which is much more about turning out African American voters and sort of mobilizing black voters.”
Related: Pete Buttigieg on ‘remarkable’ Iowa poll political earthquake
Then this week the same poll showed that Harris was now leading Trump by three points. Ann Selzer the pollster is revered. She might be the most respected pollster in America, so political aficionados everywhere took notice. It could be a sign of things to come, particularly in battleground states.
Iowa borders traditionally blue states Illinois and Minnesota but also borders Wisconsin, Nebraska, and Missouri, so while it’s likely that Harris won’t win Nebraska and Missouri, it will be interesting to see if the blue in Iowa spreads.
