If the Iowa poll is right, pollster Ann Selzer will be the most popular political forecaster in the country

Iowa delegation cast their vote during ceremonial roll call 2024 Democratic National Convention

ANDREW CABALLERO-REYNOLDS/AFP via Getty Images

If Harris wins Iowa, will the blue spread to neighboring states like Nebraska and Missouri?

John Casey

John Casey is senior editor of The Advocate, writing columns about political, societal, and topical issues with leading newsmakers of the day. The columns include interviews with Sam Altman, Mark Cuban, Colman Domingo, Jennifer Coolidge, Kelly Ripa and Mark Counselos, Jamie Lee Curtis, Shirley MacLaine, Neil Patrick Harris, Ellen DeGeneres, Bridget Everett, U.S. Reps. Nancy Pelosi, Jamie Raskin, Ro Khanna, Maxwell Frost, Sens. Chris Murphy and John Fetterman, and presidential cabinet members Leon Panetta, John Brennan, and many others. John spent 30 years working as a PR professional on Capitol Hill, Hollywood, the Nobel Prize-winning UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, UN Envoy Mike Bloomberg, Nielsen, and as media relations director with four of the largest retailers in the U.S.

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John Casey

November 05 2024 6:32 PM EST

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In September, the vaunted Des Moines Register/Selzer poll in Iowa showed Trump leading Harris by only three points. That was a big deal. It felt like it was a bellwether.

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“The thing about Iowa is that it's filled with white voters and that Iowa poll is a gold standard because there's no pollster in that state that people trust more, and the kind of movement that you saw in that Iowa poll, I see it as is a stand-in for movement among white voters in general,” Sarah Longwell, executive director of Republican Voters Against Trump said at the time.

“Now, Iowa is different from Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan,” she added. “But it's more like them than it is in states like Georgia and North Carolina, which is much more about turning out African American voters and sort of mobilizing black voters.”

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Then this week the same poll showed that Harris was now leading Trump by three points. Ann Selzer the pollster is revered. She might be the most respected pollster in America, so political aficionados everywhere took notice. It could be a sign of things to come, particularly in battleground states.

Iowa borders traditionally blue states Illinois and Minnesota but also borders Wisconsin, Nebraska, and Missouri, so while it’s likely that Harris won’t win Nebraska and Missouri, it will be interesting to see if the blue in Iowa spreads.