John McCain is
hoping the South Carolina that votes next week will be a
different South Carolina than the one that spoiled his
presidential hopes eight years ago.
He has reason to
hope: An influx of newcomers is just as Republican --
but not necessarily as conservative -- as native South
Carolinians. The Arizona senator appeals not only to
conservatives but also to party moderates and
independents, groups that helped him win Tuesday's New
Hampshire primary and become a serious contender in the
contests beyond.
The ''come
heres'' -- or ''come-yas,'' as natives call them -- have
swelled the retirement and resort communities along the
state's coast. These transplants are more moderate on
the conservative hot buttons of abortion and gay
rights. Yet their devotion to the GOP and disdain for
the Democrats is even more intense than the ''been-here''
Republicans, who often have personal and cultural ties
to the old ''Dixiecrat'' wing of the Democratic Party.
The GOP didn't
gain steam in South Carolina until the 1960s, when
conservative Democrats left the party in droves against a
backdrop of desegregation and the federal Voting
Rights Act that gave black voters clout.
Within a decade,
the GOP was bolstered by ''come heres,'' who helped
solidify the party's lock on power. Republicans in this
state hold their primary January 19; Michigan holds
its primary several days prior on January 15.
A new South
Carolina poll released Thursday showed McCain got a bounce
from his New Hampshire win; he now leads the field after
trailing for months. The Fox News/Opinion Dynamics
survey showed him with the support of 25% while Mike
Huckabee got 18% and Mitt Romney 17%.
In 2000, McCain
was also riding high after a stunning win in New
Hampshire when he cruised into South Carolina. But it was
favorite George W. Bush who prevailed here, partly
through strong support from Christian conservatives
and establishment Republicans. McCain performed best along
the coast in communities like Hilton Head Island and Myrtle
Beach where the come heres are most numerous.
It was a bitter
defeat for McCain. On television advertising Bush allies
vastly outspent the GOP underdog. Underground, McCain was
assailed in negative telephone calls and a whisper
campaign that spread rumors about him and his family.
But that was
eight years ago, and it's a different nomination fight than
it was back then -- wide-open, fractured, and lacking a
front-runner with the weight of the establishment
behind him.
''Eight years is
a long, long time in politics,'' McCain said Wednesday.
At least one
thing, however, hasn't changed -- and that could spell
trouble for McCain.
Christian
evangelicals, many of whom have never warmed to the senator,
still hold much sway in the ultraconservative Upstate
region; their favored candidate -- Baptist preacher
turned Arkansas politician Huckabee -- is angling for
a win. Immigration also could pose a problem for
McCain, who backs providing millions of illegal immigrants
an eventual path to citizenship.
This year, his
backers have set up what they're calling a ''truth squad''
to counter negative campaigning in a state known for
brass-knuckles politics. Said McCain: ''I'm not sure
the people of South Carolina would stand for it
again.''
Huckabee is seen
as McCain's greatest threat now that Romney is weakened
from two major losses and has pulled his advertising in
South Carolina to focus more on must-win Michigan.
Fred Thompson,
the former Tennessee senator, is struggling to mount a
comeback in South Carolina, playing up his support for gun
rights and his Southern roots.
But it's Huckabee
and McCain who have momentum from respective wins in
hotly contested Iowa and New Hampshire.
Christian
evangelicals have a tense relationship with McCain. He
disparaged their leaders in 2000, labeling some ''agents of
intolerance.'' Since then, he has sought to repair
relations; for instance, speaking at the late Jerry
Falwell's Liberty University in Virginia in 2006.
''There is a lot
less negativity about him in the conservative religious
community than in 2000,'' said James Guth, a political
science professor at Furman University in Greenville,
S.C.
McCain's aides
don't pretend they can lock up the Christian evangelical
vote. Rather, they are focused on appealing to voters across
all parts of the party.
A factor McCain
sees working for him is the race is the first contested
GOP primary since the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks.
McCain, a former
Vietnam prisoner of war, argues that people in a state
with a long military tradition, several bases and a large
number of veterans could seek commander-in-chief
qualities primarily in a candidate. He said of his
decades of experience on military matters, ''I
certainly think it's helpful with a lot of South
Carolinians.''
Immigration
remains a major issue and many Republicans are fired up over
McCain's position. But the passions that the issue ignited
have calmed some, and McCain has tempered his zeal for
comprehensive reform with a ''secure the borders
first'' pitch.
Through political
turmoil last year, McCain backers argue that his
biggest problem has been that South Carolina Republicans
began to doubt that he could be elected.
''After New
Hampshire that's over,'' said Lindsey Graham, the senior
South Carolina senator and close McCain confidant. ''We're a
viable campaign, and that's all we needed to prove to
people.'' (Liz Sidoti, AP)
