If Christian
conservatives stay on the sidelines during the fall
campaign, presidential hopeful John McCain probably stays in
the Senate.
Christian
conservatives provided much of the on-the-ground,
door-to-door activity for President Bush's 2004
re-election in Ohio and in other swing states. Without
them, the less-organized and lower-profile McCain
campaign is likely to struggle to replicate Bush's success.
And so far there's been scant sign that the Republican
nominee-in-waiting is making inroads among these
fervent believers.
''I don't know
that McCain's campaign realizes they cannot win without
evangelicals,'' said David Domke, a professor of
communication at the University of Washington who
studies religion and politics. ''What you see with
McCain is just a real struggle to find his footing with
evangelicals.''
Family groups in
Ohio outlined their doubts about the Arizona senator in
a meeting with McCain's advisers last weekend. They're
concerned about his record on abortion rights and on
campaign finance laws that they believe limited their
ability to criticize candidates who are pro-choice on
abortion.
''There's
certainly a little reservation about Mr. McCain. I think the
VP choice is going to be important,'' said Chris Long,
president of the Ohio Christian Alliance. ''If they
choose a conservative for the VP, that will help his
campaign. It would go a long way of sending a positive
message to evangelicals.''
Marlys Popma,
McCain's director of evangelical outreach, was one of two
aides who met with the forum and reminded them of McCain's
record supporting school choice while opposing
abortion rights and Internet pornography. She said the
campaign understands the interest in the vice
presidential nominee, but she noted that McCain ''is the one
who is going to be nominating judges. He's going to be
the one who is signing or not signing bills.''
''John McCain is
their guy,'' Popma said. ''John McCain's record is what
will bring individuals to him. I think there are some people
out there who do not know John McCain's record.''
McCain's senior
aides try to downplay the fissure with this part of the
GOP's base. They say their internal polling data suggests
McCain has the support of three-quarters of white
evangelicals in swing states, slightly less than Bush
finished with. They also stress that McCain is against
abortion rights, even if it's not the centerpiece of his
campaign.
McCain, who
identifies himself as Episcopalian and attended Baptist
services last weekend, has done himself no favors. He
appeared ignorant of high-profile figures, especially
as he sought -- and then was forced to reject -- the
support from Ohio's Rod Parsley and Texas's John Hagee
after their controversial sermons brought the candidate
unwanted criticism.
''That was one of
the most ill-advised faith and values adventures this
campaign,'' said Jacques Berlinerblau, a religious scholar
at Georgetown University who studies faith and U.S.
presidential campaigns.
It gave religious
conservatives yet another reason not to like McCain,
even though he has sought a truce this time after calling
televangelists Pat Robertson and Jerry Falwell
''agents of intolerance'' during his first
presidential run.
''It's hard to
believe he's really changed from his absolute disregard
and disdain for the traditional guard of the religious
right,'' Domke said.
Republican Ken
Blackwell, Ohio's former secretary of state, coordinated
Bush's campaign in the state and built a strong ground game
from Christian conservatives. He said he appreciates
McCain's bluntness but doesn't think it's helping him
with the base.
''He has never
identified with the evangelical and Christian movement and
therefore he can, at times, misread or misinterpret certain
activities in the political field of play or certain
comments that are offered,'' said Blackwell, now at
the Family Research Council, a conservative think tank.
''I personally would like for John to get to the point of
comfort with some of our issues and policy positions,
through understanding and genuine acceptance.''
High-emotion
ballot initiatives banning gay marriage in 11 states helped
drive conservatives to the polls in 2004. Ohio's initiative
helped give Bush a win by energizing the party's base
in a state that every successful Republican
presidential candidate has won. But only two states
have such initiatives on the November ballot this year:
Florida, a swing state, and California, which has been
an easy win for Democrats in recent years.
One of the more
influential figures among Christian conservatives, James
Dobson, told listeners to his popular Focus on the Family
radio program this week that Obama's religious views
are problematic. Yet Dobson continued to vent about
McCain, who has not been a vocal supporter of
Arizona's state ban on gay marriage.
''This is a year
when we have a lot of frustration with both political
parties,'' Dobson said Tuesday.
Domke's research
suggests Obama could lose big among older evangelicals,
particularly elite faith-based activists, who take their
cues from Dobson.
Bob Heckman, who
leads McCain's outreach to conservatives, said voters
will see clear differences -- and McCain's values better
dovetail with their views than do Obama's, he added.
''Part of our job is to remind them they're down to a
binary of choices,'' Heckman said.
But Dobson has
not backed off his statement that he could not in good
conscience vote for McCain and has suggested he might not
cast a presidential ballot.
''A lot of
evangelicals would rather take a defeat than to vote for a
candidate they don't trust,'' Domke said. ''A Republican
defeat, particularly McCain's defeat, would help their
movement.''
Although the
Arizona Republican's advisers privately worry about
rejection by the religious right, McCain's campaign lacks
the faith-based savvy of Bush's campaigns. McCain
skipped the Southern Baptist Convention Annual
Meeting, a gathering that Bush addressed by video in 2004.
Unlike Bush, whose campaign also threw a private
reception at that meeting, McCain didn't even bother
sending aides.
Meanwhile,
Obama's campaign is aggressively reaching out to
evangelicals.
The Illinois
senator dispatched former 9/11 Commission member Tim Roemer
to meet with fellow Roman Catholics. He sent Brian McLaren,
one of the country's most influential pastors, to meet
with fellow evangelicals. And aides have conducted
more than 200 ''American Values Forums,'' soon to be
followed up with house parties and town hall-style
meetings aimed at young Catholics and young
evangelicals.
Obama's strategy
isn't aimed at outpolling McCain among evangelicals.
''Obama knows he
can't win (among evangelicals),'' said Berlinerblau, who
wrote Thumpin' It: The Use and Abuse of the Bible in
Today's Presidential Politics.
''If he can get
up to 21% to 30%, he's gold,'' Berlinerblau said. ''And
that's exactly what he's doing. He's going to fissure off
this progressive evangelical voter.'' (Philip Elliott,
AP)
