Gay rights
activists in Arkansas, Arizona, California, and Florida used
their last day of campaigning before Election Day to urge
voters to choose equal rights. How did they fare? Poll
results going into the election show it's
going to be a close call across the board.
Florida: Amendment 2
Florida's
requirement to garner 60% of the vote in order to amend the
constitution might be the measure's downfall. Amendment 2,
placed on the ballot by a citizen petition drive, may
not be able to reach the 60% majority needed.
According to the most recent Mason-Dixon poll, 55% of
likely Florida voters support the amendment, 35% are against
it, and 10% are undecided.
The amendment's
language may hurt its chances as well. While restricting
marriage to one man and one woman, the amendment also states
that "no other legal union that is treated as marriage
or 'the substantial equivalent thereof' shall be valid
or recognized." The amendment could eradicate domestic
partnerships and civil unions that are offered in
cities and counties through the state. WFTS TV, an ABC
affiliate in the Tampa Bay area, says it could also affect
roommate arrangements that involve benefits or have
some legal standing.
Arizona: Proposition 102
In 2006, Arizona
became the first state to reject a same-sex marriage
ban; the defeat was blamed on its restrictive language.
That proposal would have also banned domestic
partnerships, which could have affected gay and
straight unmarried cohabitants, including senior
citizens. Following that election, 60% of those who voted
against the measure said they felt it infringed on
people's rights. The current proposition
addresses only marriage, not domestic partnerships.
An Arizona State
University and KAET TV poll in September showed that 49%
of likely voters would support Proposition 102 and 42% would
oppose it, with 9% undecided.
Republican
presidential candidate John McCain, Arizona's senior
senator, said he opposes a marriage ban in the federal
constitution and believes in states' rights in
choosing whether to allow same-sex marriage. McCain
spokeswoman Ivette Barajas told the Associated Press that
the senator supports Proposition 102 because he "has
always held the position that marriage is between one
man and one woman."
California: Proposition 8
The nation is
watching to see if the most populous -- and
notoriously blue -- state will vote again to ban same-sex
marriage. After $73 million in contributions,
Hollywood endorsements, arrests, violence, and a fight
for visibility on both sides, the state's proposed
constitutional marriage ban is in a dead heat. The ballot
initiative was in response to the California supreme
court's May 15 ruling that banning same-sex marriage
was unconstitutional.
A November 1
Survey USA poll showed that half of likely California voters
would vote against the marriage ban. An October 31 Field
Poll had 49% of voters rejecting the proposition and
44% supporting it. The poll numbers have fluctuated
significantly since the ballot measure was
introduced in June. Polls have shown as many as 55% of
voters opposed to Proposition 8, but the numbers
have evened out in recent weeks.
Arkansas: Act 1
While the state
saw a lopsided vote to ban same-sex marriage in
2006, this initiative, which would prevent gay parents from
adopting children, is likely to fail. According to the
latest University of Arkansas poll, 55% of registered
voters oppose the measure, while 38% support it. Seven
percent are undecided.
The ballot
initiative bars anyone "cohabitating outside of a valid
marriage" from adopting children or taking in foster
children. Arkansas governor Mike Beebe once said he
supported adoption restrictions, but he changed his
mind because of the lack of foster homes, according to
the Associated Press. Officials with the Arkansas
Family Council, which has been pushing for the ban, said if
the measure fails, they will go to the state
legislature to seek a ban, a move they found
unsuccessful in 2007. (Michelle Garcia, The Advocate)
