As the Trump administration prepares to take office once again, armed with the dangerous Project 2025 as a playbook, combined with a Republican-controlled Congress and a Defense secretary nominee who has it out for gay people, the path ahead for LGBTQ+ service members appears fraught with uncertainty and potential challenges. Advocates and military experts alike are bracing for what some fear could be a rollback of hard-won gains in inclusivity and equality within the armed forces.
Congress has already started its assault. The House of Representatives Wednesday approved the National Defense Authorization Act, an $884 billion spending bill that includes a provision denying insurance coverage for gender-affirming care fortransgender children of service members.
News came out this week about Trump’s nominee for secretary of Defense, Pete Hegseth, who is facing criticism for his views on LGBTQ+ military service, including opposition to the repeal of “don’t ask, don’t tell” and concerns about transgender and female service members. He wrote about his anti-LGBTQ+ stance in his 2024 book, The Wars on Warriors.
Hegseth expressed regret for not opposing DADT's repeal more strongly, suggesting it marked a shift toward what he terms a “Marxist agenda” prioritizing social justice over military readiness. While acknowledging the contributions of LGBTQ+ troops during wartime, he claimed the policy change undermined cohesion and effectiveness, framing his critique as part of a broader opposition to progressive cultural changes. Advocacy groups and political leaders argue that his stance reflects outdated, discriminatory attitudes unaligned with modern military values.
Today, Hegseth said he supports gay people serving in the military, but with his nomination in jeopardy, do we really believe his about-face? After all, the book was released just this year, and in media appearances promoting the book — this year — he reiterated his attacks. So, it's hard to believe he's suddenly changed his mind.
For Tom Carpenter, a Naval Academy graduate, decorated Marine Corps fighter pilot, and former board member for the Servicemembers Legal Defense Network, the stakes have never felt higher. Carpenter, who was instrumental in the fight to repeal DADT, warns that the combination of conservative leadership and initiatives like Project 2025 could have profound implications not just for LGBTQ+ personnel but for the very fabric of military cohesion.
Reflecting on Donald Trump's presidency, Carpenter recalls the abrupt 2017 transgender military ban, initiated by a tweet.
“The military was ready to move forward with transgender inclusion,” he said. “Then Trump came in and said, ‘Nope, I want to stop this.’” The ban, framed under the guise of cost-saving and readiness, drew sharp criticism from experts who debunked its rationale, Carpenter notes. Studies consistently showed that transgender service members performed their duties as effectively as their cisgender peers.
“Then President Biden came in and said ‘bring them back in again,’” Carpenter explains. “Now the estimates are there are 65,000-70,000 active duty LGB people and probably anywhere from 13,000 to 15,000 transgender, and what Trump and conservatives are trying to do is deny them coverage under TriCare, which is the uniformed services health care program for active duty service members.”
This strategy, Carpenter notes, could force families with transgender members out of the military, setting a precedent for broader discrimination. “Once they’ve dealt with transgender people, they’re going to turn their guns on us [LGB people],” he warns.
Carpenter outlines how Trump, with a compliant Defense secretary, could use executive power to erode LGBTQ+ inclusion in the armed forces.
“The president could issue an order to the Defense secretary to draft a regulation disqualifying individuals who identify as LGBTQ+ from serving,” Carpenter explains. “It would be framed as a matter of ‘good order and discipline’ or unit cohesion, but in reality, it’s a political maneuver.”
Such a regulation could mandate discharge proceedings for service members based on their sexual orientation or gender identity. Carpenter notes that while this would face legal challenges, the immediate effect could create a chilling climate within the ranks.
“People would fear coming out,” he says. “Those already serving openly might feel compelled to leave.”
In addition to executive actions, a conservative Congress could take legislative measures. Carpenter warns that a GOP-controlled House and Senate might vote to reinstate DADT.
“They’ve already floated the idea,” he says. “By codifying discriminatory policies into law, they would make it much harder for a future administration to reverse course.”
Such a move would be unprecedented in modern history, effectively turning back the clock on more than a decade of progress.
“It’s a signal to LGBTQ+ Americans that their service and sacrifice are not valued,” Carpenter asserts.
Carpenter is particularly concerned about the erosion of trust between the military and civilian leadership, a cornerstone of U.S. defense.
“The military is completely subservient to civilian leadership. That’s why we’ve never had a military coup,” he says. “To go after people for following legal orders — it’s going to disrupt unit discipline, morale, and the entire foundation of our military.”
He fears a chilling effect on mid-level officers and enlisted personnel. “What are the captains, lieutenants, and majors going to think? If they see their leaders punished for doing their jobs, it’s going to shake their confidence in the system.”
And with regard to Hegseth’s comments, Carpenter said that now is the time for all of us to contact our senators to demand he not touch DADT repeal.
Finally, Carpenter calls for unity among LGBTQ+ advocates, emphasizing the need to support transgender service members, who he believes will face the brunt of these policies. “I know there are some on the LGB side who don’t fully embrace our transgender brothers and sisters,” he says. “But we need to fight for them."
This unity, Carpenter believes, is critical to countering efforts to erode the gains made since the repeal of DADT. “We’re in this together. And we need to remember what our transgender comrades have done for us and never, never abandon them.”
Despite the looming challenges, Carpenter remains optimistic about the resilience of the military’s professional core. “This is a big bureaucracy. It’s like trying to change the direction of an aircraft carrier. There will be pushback. There are professionals who have been around a long time and will say, ‘No, we’re not going to do this.’”
Carpenter’s optimism extends to the belief that, even in difficult times, the values of inclusivity and equality can endure.
“The military has come around to fully accepting LGB people. There’s no reason to turn back the clock,” he says.
As the nation approaches this uncertain chapter, the future of LGBTQ+ service members hangs in the balance. But as Carpenter’s decades of advocacy demonstrate, the fight for equality in the armed forces is one worth waging — and winning.